Since 2025 new US tariffs have applied to goods from the EU, and the rules have changed several times since. This short study compares German exports to the US from January to August 2024, the last full comparison period before the tariffs, with the same months of 2025 and 2026, broken down into 15 product groups.
The result in four numbers
Question and data
The question is simple: in which product groups has business with the US shrunk since the tariffs, and where has it grown? The basis is Eurostat’s monthly trade data (Comext database, dataset DS-045409): reporter Germany, partner United States, exports, value in euros. Each comparison covers January to August, because August 2026 is the latest published month (data as of 16 October 2026). The 15 selected chapters of the Harmonized System covered about 84 percent of German exports to the US in 2024; they include the large industrial groups and goods typical of trade and small and medium-sized firms.
As a check: Eurostat counts according to the community concept, the Federal Statistical Office according to special trade. The results are nevertheless close. For 2025 the Eurostat series gives 146.9 billion euros, the Federal Statistical Office reports 146.2 billion euros; for the first half of 2026 it gives minus 6.2 percent, the office reports minus 6.1 percent.
Results
From January to August 2024 Germany shipped goods worth 107.5 billion euros to the US, in the same period of 2025 99.7 and in 2026 100.6 billion euros. Compared with 2024 that is a fall of 6.5 percent; compared with 2025 the value barely changed (up 0.9 percent). For the EU as a whole the curve was different: 352.3, then 384.8 and finally 335.8 billion euros, first a rise of 9.2 percent and then a fall of 12.7 percent.
German exports to the US, percent, by chapter of the Harmonized System (HS). 2024 is the comparison year before the tariffs.
| Product group | Change |
|---|---|
| Iron and steel (HS 72) | −44.7% |
| Motor vehicles and parts (HS 87) | −26.8% |
| Organic chemicals (HS 29) | −23.2% |
| Articles of iron or steel (HS 73) | −17.0% |
| Toys and sports goods (HS 95) | −13.8% |
| Beverages (HS 22) | −12.2% |
| Cosmetics and perfumes (HS 33) | −8.5% |
| Measuring, optical and medical instruments (HS 90) | −4.6% |
| Plastics (HS 39) | −4.4% |
| Machinery (HS 84) | −3.7% |
| Furniture and lighting (HS 94) | −0.8% |
| Electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85) | +6.2% |
| Pharmaceuticals (HS 30) | +9.2% |
| Footwear (HS 64) | +36.5% |
| Aluminium (HS 76) | +58.1% |
Analysis: Helfen statt Blockieren. Data: Eurostat Comext, DS-045409, as of 16 Oct 2026, accessed 3 Nov 2026.
The largest fall in euros is in motor vehicles and parts: 6.0 billion euros or 26.8 percent. Iron and steel lose 44.7 percent, articles of iron or steel 17.0 percent, organic chemicals 23.2 percent. For machinery, the second largest group, the fall is smaller at 3.7 percent. Consumer goods that many traders deal in are also below 2024: toys and sports goods by 13.8 percent, beverages by 12.2 percent, cosmetics by 8.5 percent. Pharmaceuticals (up 9.2 percent) and electrical machinery (up 6.2 percent) grew. Footwear (up 36.5 percent) and aluminium (up 58.1 percent) grew from a small base; the data do not show why.
German exports to the US, billion euros, per year.
| Product group | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor vehicles and parts | 22.5 | 19.3 | 16.5 |
| Machinery | 21.8 | 20.0 | 21.0 |
| Pharmaceuticals | 18.1 | 18.2 | 19.8 |
| Electrical machinery and equipment | 10.4 | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| Measuring, optical and medical instruments | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.6 |
Analysis: Helfen statt Blockieren. Data: Eurostat Comext, DS-045409, as of 16 Oct 2026, accessed 3 Nov 2026.
The monthly values show the course. August 2025 was the weakest month in the series; July and August 2026 were clearly higher again.
Billion euros, not seasonally adjusted. One line per year; 2026 up to August.
| Month | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.3 |
| February | 13.8 | 13.9 | 11.9 |
| March | 14.4 | 15.2 | 13.1 |
| April | 14.4 | 13.1 | 11.4 |
| May | 13.3 | 11.7 | 12.5 |
| June | 13.0 | 11.8 | 12.7 |
| July | 14.2 | 12.2 | 15.5 |
| August | 12.6 | 9.8 | 12.1 |
| September | 14.6 | 13.3 | not yet |
| October | 13.3 | 12.2 | not yet |
| November | 14.3 | 11.3 | not yet |
| December | 11.5 | 10.4 | not yet |
Analysis: Helfen statt Blockieren. Data: Eurostat Comext, DS-045409, as of 16 Oct 2026, accessed 3 Nov 2026.
What the numbers do not say
- They are nominal: prices and the euro to US dollar exchange rate are not adjusted for.
- They show movement, not cause. Besides tariffs, demand, front-loading before tariff deadlines and the relocation of production to the US all play a role.
- Small groups fluctuate strongly; single large orders can shape a year’s value.
- Eurostat revises monthly values later. Anyone recalculating with new data will get slightly different results.
Recalculate
The raw data are available as CSV files, the calculation as a Python script without extra libraries: daten/auswertung.py. With python3 auswertung.py --abruf it downloads the data again from Eurostat; without the flag it calculates from the saved files. Result files: ergebnis_summen.csv, ergebnis_kapitel.csv, ergebnis_monat_de_us.csv.
What the rules say in detail is explained in the article “Tariffs 2025 to 2026: what reaches the trader”.
This piece is information, not legal advice. It reflects the author’s view. “Helfen statt Blockieren” is non-partisan.
Sources
- Eurostat, Comext, dataset DS-045409 “EU trade since 1988 by HS2-4-6 and CN8”, retrieved via the public Comext API, data as of 16 Oct 2026, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409
- Destatis, press release 056 of 20 Feb 2026 (year 2025, cross-check), https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2026/02/PD26_056_51.html
- Destatis, press release 296 of 20 Aug 2026 (first half of 2026, cross-check), https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2026/08/PD26_296_51.html
- European Commission, topic page “EU-US trade deal” (steel and aluminium), https://commission.europa.eu/topics/trade/eu-us-trade-deal_en
- Calculation: redaktion/daten/auswertung.py, raw data roh_*.csv, results ergebnis_*.csv
All online sources accessed on 3 November 2026.